How the Loss Prevention Research Council Decodes Retail Crime: Insights from Dr. Read Hayes

Summary:

With violence and crime continuing to rise, Dr. Read Hayes of the Loss Prevention Research Council explains how retailers can combat crime using the “Bow Tie” model and evidence-based research. He breaks down the psychology of “need vs. greed” and highlights how technology acts as a force multiplier to stop threats before they escalate. Ultimately, the discussion charts a path toward safer stores through the “Connect 3” framework, uniting retailers, enterprises, and law enforcement.

Understanding Retail Crime Today

Retail loss prevention today is a sophisticated discipline that extends far beyond simply stopping shoplifters at the exit; it demands a nuanced grasp of human behavior, reliance on accurate data, and a holistic understanding of the entire ‘journey to crime.’

The stakes have never been higher. According to The 2025 State of Retail Safety Report published by Verkada and the Loss Prevention Research Council (LPRC), reports of physical assault against retail workers have risen by 57% year-over-year.

To effectively confront rising retail crime and violence, security leaders must first understand not just how, but why these crimes are committed. Dr. Read Hayes, Executive Director of the LPRC, uses evidence-based research to identify the roots of retail crime and inform more effective prevention strategies.

About Dr. Read Hayes: Life-Long Passion for Loss Prevention

Since starting his career in 1977, Dr. Hayes has accumulated over 30 years of hands-on experience in crime and loss prevention. His background is as diverse as it is impressive: he has served as a U.S. Army infantry officer, a narcotics agent for the Alachua County Sheriff’s Office, and a loss prevention leader for major brands like Sears and Ross Stores.

In 2000, Dr. Hayes founded the Loss Prevention Research Council (LPRC) with a clear mission: to support the evidence-based needs of loss prevention decision-makers. Beginning with a handful of key retailers like Target, Home Depot, and Gap, the council has grown to include over 100 major retail chains representing hundreds of thousands of stores worldwide.

The LPRC provides actionable, data-driven insights that enable retailers to proactively reduce theft, fraud, and violence, anchoring loss prevention strategy in applied research and objective analysis.

“We envision a world where retailers can more effectively prevent and manage crime and loss, allowing them to focus on serving their customers and communities,” says Dr. Hayes.

The Psychology of Theft

Understanding the offender’s motivation is essential for effective loss prevention. On the podcast, Dr. Hayes divides retail theft into two main categories: “Need” and “Greed.”

Stealing basic essentials, such as bread or household items, often stems from necessity. However, when an offender targets high-value electronics, premium apparel, or large quantities of goods, the motivation shifts to profit with the intention to “convert-to-cash.”

Preventing Crimes Motivated by Greed

For crimes driven by “greed,” the LPRC uses a rational choice framework. Ignoring outside influences like stress or substance use, offenders typically weigh three factors before stealing:

• Reward: How valuable is the item, and how easily can it be sold?

• Effort: What tools, knowledge, or physical exertion are required to steal it?

• Risk: What is the likelihood of being detected or apprehended?

Leveraging Psychology for Proactive Prevention

Security leaders can alter this calculus by pulling specific levers. Dr. Hayes highlights strategies like “Benefit Denial” –a term his team helped coin – which uses ink tags or inert gift cards to eliminate the reward.

If ink tags are removed without the proper tool, they will stain and damage a good. Dr. Hayes explains that this is one form of benefit denial where the item becomes less valuable and less likely to be resold after it is damaged.

Visible security, such as cameras and security guards, increases the perceived risk for potential bad actors. They will be less likely to act if they feel there is a high likelihood of getting caught.

Dr. Hayes also recommends making theft more difficult through measures such as locked cases and specialized fixtures, which force offenders to use tools or remain in-store longer. Yet, this approach requires careful moderation. According to the 2025 State of Retail Safety Report, 56% of consumers find these methods frustrating, and 45% say locked shelves reduce their likelihood of shopping in-store. Retailers must balance deterring offenders with maintaining a positive customer experience.

The “Bow Tie” Model: Data Before, During, and After

Effective security relies on data. Dr. Hayes advocates the Bow Tie Model, a framework for visualizing and analyzing the full timeline of a security incident, or “the journey to harm.”

The Bow Tie Model breaks down crime into three zones of influence, enabling security teams to pinpoint data-driven intervention opportunities:

• Left of Bang (Before the Event): This phase looks at pre-crime indicators. Dr. Hayes notes that data is used to assess the threat, identifying “who, what, when, where, why, and how” before a crime occurs. AI-driven technologies like facial recognition and license plate detection can flag known organized retail crime groups as soon as they enter parking lots, allowing security personnel to prepare before suspects enter the store.

• At Bang (During the Event): In this phase, the focus is on real-time situational awareness with the primary goal of enhancing employee and customer safety. Live alerts and smart sensors support swift identification of offenders and help to minimize harm.

• Right of Bang (After the Event): This stage involves forensic analysis. Data such as high-definition video and logs help investigators identify suspects and build prosecution cases. These insights then feed back into prevention strategies, helping retailers recognize patterns and strengthen future defenses.

The “Bow Tie” model examines the timeline of a crime: what happens before the event, during the incident, and after the fact.

“Connect 3”: The Future of Community Safety

Dr. Hayes envisions a future defined by “Connect 3”, a smart, connected community where information flows seamlessly between the store, the enterprise, and the community.

Modern technology plays a pivotal role here. By identifying repeat offenders or organized crews early, systems can alert staff the moment a known threat enters the parking lot.

“We’re trying to instrument and understand that journey to harm so that we can pull all the data together, make better decisions, and create much greater safety,” says Dr. Hayes.

Key Takeaways:

• Retail Violence is a Growing Crisis: According to the 2025 State of Retail Safety Report, physical assault against retail workers has risen 57% year-over-year, underscoring the urgent need for security leaders to move beyond reactive measures with proactive prevention.

• Shifting the “Rational Choice” Calculus: Effective prevention requires understanding the offender’s mindset. Retailers can deter “greed-based” crimes by altering the thief’s decision-making process: reducing the reward, increasing the effort, and raising the risk.

• The “Bow Tie” Model for Intervention: Dr. Hayes advocates for a data-driven approach to loss prevention with different actions across the “journey to crime.” By utilizing technology like AI and real-time alerts, retailers can intervene at three critical stages: before, during, and after an event.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between “Need” and “Greed” based theft?

According to Dr. Read Hayes, theft driven by “Need” typically involves basic essentials like food or household items used for personal survival. In contrast, “Greed” based theft involves high-value items—such as electronics or premium apparel—intended to be “converted to cash” or resold for profit. Understanding this distinction helps retailers tailor their prevention strategies effectively.

What is the “Bow Tie” model in loss prevention?

The Bow Tie model is a framework used to visualize the full timeline of a security incident, or the “journey to harm”. It is divided into three phases: Before the event (using data to predict and prevent), During the event (using real-time sensors to locate offenders and ensure safety), and After the event (using forensic data for investigation and future mitigation).

What is “Benefit Denial”?

Coined by Dr. Hayes and the LPRC team, “Benefit Denial” is a strategy designed to remove the reward from the crime. Examples include ink tags that stain clothing if removed forcefully or “inert” gift cards that have no value until activated at a register. If the offender cannot use or resell the item, the incentive to steal it disappears.

Do physical security measures like locked cases actually work?

Locked cases are designed to increase the “effort” required to steal, which can deter offenders. However, this comes with a trade-off. The 2025 State of Retail Safety Report found that 56% of consumers find these tools frustrating and 45% say locked shelves make them less likely to shop in-store. Retail workers also aren’t happy with the locked cabinets: nearly half (46%) said that these tools are more disruptive than effective, and more than half (55%) say that they reduce their efficiency when they’re busy on the job. Retailers must balance security with the customer experience.

Learn more about The Loss Prevention Research Council here.

Read the full 2025 State of Retail Safety Report here.